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Eastern Power Outage Unfortunate But Entirely Predictable; Aug. 14 Event Offers Wake-Up Call for U.S. Energy PolicymakersBy Ascribe, 8/15/2003 12:27Calling the massive Aug. 14 power outages in the Northeastern United
States ''a wake-up call to decision makers,'' officials at the
twenty-year-old Institute said Americans should look to distributed,
diverse, and resilient clean technologies to power their industries,
homes, and communities. America's existing system-based on a hundred
years' worth of heavily centralized generation and distribution
policies-can trigger a cascading series of errors that leaves us
vulnerable and should be corrected.
''This is the fourth catastrophic failure of the central power grid
within the last decade,'' said Kyle Datta, Managing Director of RMI's
consulting practice, ''and yet decision makers are not learning the right
lessons from these crises.''
In 1996, six western states lost power because a squirrel got burned on
one of the transformers at a crucial time. In 1998, there were two power
failures: ice storms took out power from eastern Canada and the U.S., and
the city of Auckland, New Zealand lost power for over two months due to a
transmission line failure. Today, the power loss appears to be from a
strike of lightning.
RMI has warned of the weakness of the grid for years, notably via the
Institute's founders' 1982 book Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for
National Security (www.rmi.org/sitepages/art7095.php) that describes the
vulnerability of the North American electric grid to attack, accident, and
natural disaster.
In 1982, in the wake of the July 1977 New York City blackout, RMI
cofounder Amory Lovins, described the electrical grid as a disaster
waiting to happen. ''The United States has for decades been undermining
the foundations of its own strength,'' he and coauthor Hunter Lovins
wrote. ''It has gradually built up an energy system prone to sudden
massive failures with catastrophic consequences.''
RMI's Datta observes that the reason the New York system power failure
cascaded across to New England, Canada and the Midwest, was that all the
systems were heavily loaded with high electrical demand and near capacity,
so that when a problem starts in part of the interconnected system, it can
spread quickly to the remainder of the system through a cascading series
of failures.
RMI's Datta said that the centralized architecture of the large
interconnected power systems is one of the United States' biggest
vulnerabilities. Today's power system consists of relatively few and large
units of generation and transmission, interconnect ed rather sparsely with
heavy dependence on a few critical nodes (many of which are nearing
overload). These interconnected units are knitted into a synchronous
system in a way that is difficult for the system to operate if it becomes
isolated. The system provides relatively little storage to buffer the
successive stages of generation and distribution, and locates generation
units in clusters, remote from the loads they serve.
All these attributes contradict the fundamental requirements of
resilient design. Further, the failure to invest in energy conservation
and demand response have lead to a situation in which power demand rises
to the point where there is little surplus capacity left in the
system-placing our electricity system in a precarious position. Even a
weather-induced surge of electricity or a failure of a major power plant
or transmission line can cascade through the system and cause massive
technical, social, public health, and national security problems-as they
did Aug. 14. Our electrical system, as we predicted over thirty years ago,
is and remains extremely brittle.
LEARNING THE RIGHT LESSONS
Datta observes the traditional response is to call for more, and larger
power plants and extensive expansion of the transmission system. While
such solutions will provide temporary relief, they do not address the root
cause of the problem.
The solution, he said, is distributed generation architecture; placing
smaller, modular, diverse, and redundant electrical devices spread across
the grid close to the load they serve. Energy sources such as fuel cells,
combined heat and power, solar panels and micro-turbines can provide power
at lower cost and greater reliability than the centralized power grid. The
distributed energy sources can be organized into modules, such as power
parks, that can isolate themselves from the system when necessary.
RMI's 2002 publication, ''Small Is Profitable''
(www.smallisprofitable.org) finds that the benefits of distributed
resources make them more economic than centralized power plants - relying
on a distributed architecture that makes the system far more resilient
than today.
''The interesting question is not understanding why the centralized
system failed once again'', said Datta, ''but to understand which elements
of the system are able to maintain electricity supply in the face of
overall system failure. Our prediction is that the distributed generation
components of the system continued to provide reliable power.''
Datta likened our current grid to a centralized mainframe with limited
access points. The worldwide web, on the other hand, distributes computing
power, and by its dispersed nature means information is at much less risk,
he said.
''The web is a very good model of what we should be doing with
electricity. The grid should exist, but it should complement electricity
storing and generating devices on our office buildings, our homes, roofs,
in our basements, and ultimately in our fuel cell driven automobiles.
Putting all our eggs in one basket is a predictable catastrophe waiting to
happen.''
For more information please visit www.rmi.org, or call Rocky Mountain
Institute at 970-927-3851, outreach(at)rmi.org.
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